The 2026 Memory Chip Crisis: Why B2B Demand Is Shifting to Refurbished iPhones
Global smartphone shipments are now forecast to fall 13.9% year-on-year in 2026, to 1.08 billion units — fewer than in any full year in well over a decade, according to Counterpoint Research. The primary cause is not weak demand: it is a memory chip supply crisis, as manufacturing capacity shifts toward AI-focused HBM and server DRAM and pushes mobile memory prices sharply higher. Q1 2026 already posted the first year-on-year decline after nine straight quarters of growth, and smartphone wholesale prices rose 14% in that same quarter alone.
Inside that shrinking, pricier new-device market, Counterpoint expects one segment to buck the trend entirely: the secondary and refurbished market, forecast to grow 13% in 2026 even as new shipments fall by double digits. Apple already leads that growing segment by a wide margin. This guide lays out what the data says, why the mechanism behind it holds up, and what it means for anyone sourcing graded used or refurbished iPhones right now. This is market orientation, not financial advice — the forecasts below are exactly that, forecasts, and we flag them as such.
By TR Admin · Last updated: 2026-10-26
What Counterpoint's 2026 forecast actually says
Counterpoint Research's 1 June 2026 forecast puts global smartphone shipments at 1.08 billion units for the full year, down 13.9% year-on-year — a steeper decline than the 12.4% the firm had projected back in February. Q1 2026 shipments already fell 3.1% year-on-year, the first quarterly decline after nine consecutive quarters of growth.
The named cause is a memory supply crisis: chipmakers have reallocated manufacturing capacity toward AI-focused HBM and server DRAM, and mobile LPDDR4/5 memory prices are on track to roughly triple in Q2 2026 compared with Q4 2025. LPDDR4 supply specifically is projected to fall more than 40% over the year, hitting entry-level and budget devices hardest. A geopolitical layer — the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — adds further pressure, though Counterpoint frames the broader macro backdrop as milder than the inflation shock that followed the war in Ukraine.
Why a memory shortage pushes demand toward the secondary market
When a component cost rises sharply and supply tightens at the same time, durable-goods markets tend to respond the same way: new-unit prices firm up or margins compress, replacement cycles stretch, and a share of demand that would have bought new shifts toward used and refurbished stock instead.
That is the pattern Counterpoint itself calls out. Against the backdrop of the steepest annual shipment decline it has forecast in years, it expects the secondary and refurbished market to be "one of the clearest beneficiaries" — growing 13% in 2026 while the overall market contracts.
Apple's growing share of a growing market
Apple's position inside that expanding segment is the part that matters most for a wholesale buyer built around iPhones. Counterpoint data reported by AppleWorld.Today and MacTech on 28 April 2026 puts Apple's share of the global refurbished smartphone market at 58% — up from 56% in 2024 and 51% in 2023, three consecutive years of gains. The same report values the global pre-owned smartphone market at roughly $83 billion in 2025 revenue, about 19% of total smartphone sales value.
Counterpoint's own 2026 forecast also expects iPhone shipments to hold roughly flat for the year, even as the broader market contracts by double digits. For sourcing, that matters twice over: Apple already dominates the fastest-growing corner of a shrinking market, and a comparatively stable flow of new iPhones sold today keeps the pipeline of future trade-in and buyback units from drying up as quickly as it might for brands whose new-unit sales are falling sharply.
A pattern that already shows up outside Europe
The mechanism is visible beyond the aggregate forecast. In India, refurbished smartphone volumes grew 13% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 even as new-phone volumes fell about 11% over the same period, per Counterpoint. Same driver, different market: once new devices get pricier or harder to source, buyers who still want a premium brand move down the supply chain rather than out of it.
None of that changes how sourcing works on the European side mechanically, but the direction is the same one already visible around every launch-driven repricing wave we track — see iPhone wholesale pricing factors for how that plays out model by model.
What this means for B2B sourcing now
Two effects are worth keeping separate. A growing secondary market is good news for the sales side of a wholesale business — but a chip-driven cost shock upstream can, with a lag, also tighten the supply of future buyback and trade-in stock: fewer new phones sold this year means fewer units entering the secondary pipeline a few years out. Nothing about that is actionable this quarter, but it is a reason to lock in supplier relationships and documented sourcing now rather than assume 2026-level availability repeats automatically in 2028.
The other half of the equation is unaffected by any of this: a memory shortage changes what a new device costs to build, not what condition an individual used unit is actually in. That is still verified unit by unit — grading, battery health, IMEI status — exactly the ground covered in our guides on grading standards and evaluating a wholesale supplier.
How we already operate in this environment
At TR Vertriebs GmbH, every unit runs through our 52-point diagnostic test, gets an individual test report and is IMEI-verified, blacklist- and activation-lock-checked before it ships. Battery health is guaranteed above 80% on every grade and every model. Stock spans iPhone 11 through the current iPhone 17 Pro Max, available from a minimum order quantity of 10 units.
None of that depends on component markets or launch calendars: payment received by 17:00 CET ships the same day from our warehouse in Horn-Bad Meinberg, with EU delivery the next business day, fully insured — a standard we have applied since 2011.
Sources and status
All figures above rest on the following sources. Status: October 2026.
- Counterpoint Research, "2026 Smartphone Shipments to Post Worst Annual Decline on Record as Memory Crisis and Geopolitical Shocks Converge" (1 June 2026)
- Counterpoint Research, Global Pre-Owned Smartphone Market Tracker, covering the first half of 2026 (published 18 August 2026)
- Counterpoint Research data on Apple's global refurbished-market share, as reported by AppleWorld.Today / MacTech (28 April 2026)
- Counterpoint Research data on India's refurbished smartphone market, H1 2026, as reported by regional outlets (September 2026)
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the 2026 smartphone shipment decline really caused by a memory chip shortage rather than weak demand?
That is what Counterpoint Research names as the primary driver: a reallocation of memory manufacturing capacity toward AI-focused HBM and server DRAM, which is pushing mobile LPDDR4/5 prices toward roughly tripling in Q2 2026 versus Q4 2025. A geopolitical layer — the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — adds further pressure on top of that.
Why would a memory chip shortage increase demand for refurbished iPhones?
When new-device component costs rise sharply, new-unit prices firm up or margins compress and some buyers shift toward used and refurbished stock instead of waiting or paying more. Counterpoint expects the secondary and refurbished market to grow 13% in 2026 even as overall new-phone shipments fall by double digits.
Does this change TR Vertriebs GmbH's testing or grading standards?
No. Our 52-point diagnostic, individual test report, IMEI verification and the battery guarantee above 80% on every grade and model apply the same way regardless of what is happening in the memory-chip market.
What should a B2B buyer actually do differently right now?
Treat current stock availability as something to lock in through documented supplier relationships rather than assume it repeats automatically a few years out, since fewer new phones sold today can mean fewer trade-in and buyback units entering the pipeline later. What you evaluate per unit — grading, battery health, IMEI status — does not change.